OID: High estimates may not be useful to you, but in investment publishing
For example, I see that USG's
stock price got higher than your $63 valuation during 1999 - up around $65.
Nygren: Yeah. That sounds right. And in 1999, I would
have had a higher business value estimate - because I would have been assuming a
lower energy price and moderately less severity on the asbestos cases.
OID: But again, you're not buying it currently.
Nygren: Right. I do own it, but I'm not
buying more. I'd like a clearer view that the asbestos problem won't become,
as you say, "a Survivor series" in reverse. I think that's unlikely, but I can't
dismiss it as impossible.
OID: Does Marty Whitman
say how he can live with it - because he's told us in the past that he doesn't want to go
anywhere near tobacco for that reason?
Nygren: In his last quarterly report, Marty talked
about USG as being the first asbestos-related company that he's ever had
the confidence to buy. But that was before the events of the last few weeks.
And the stock's gone down from the mid-$20s to the mid-teens.
[Editor's note: For Whitman's most recent perspective on
USG, see page 61.]
OID: As a result of the bankruptcy of
Owens Corning.
Nygren: The fear of the overall asbestos issue has
risen because of Owens Corning. But as I mentioned before, just as important
is the fear of the shrinking pool of survivors. And there, when we look at the other
usual suspects who get sued in these lawsuits, there are a lot of names you haven't
read about in the context of asbestos litigation in years. They include
Pfizer,
General Electric,
3M and General Motors.
So there are some mighty strong companies left. It's not just the smaller building
products companies.
[Editor's note: After our initial conversations,
Berkshire Hathaway
reported purchasing a stake of nearly 15% in USG. When we asked
Nygren for
his reaction, here's what he had to say:
OID: Any reaction to Berkshire Hathaway's disclosure that it had purchased
nearly 15% of USG's common?
Nygren: Sure. We were very pleased to see that.
And we're excited to have Buffett
as a co-shareholder in any company we're invested in, but especially in this one where
asbestos liability is probably the key issue as to whether or not the stock is a buy. I
think his ownership of insurance companies that have written asbestos policies gives him
even more of an edge than he normally has. And therefore we're more heartened by
his purchase of USG than we have been by his purchase of other names we own.
OID: Yeah. We've had to learn to live with him piggybacking on our ideas, too. But
has his purchase made you any more sanguine about its prospects - or at least less
concerned about the potential legal risk?
Nygren: Let me answer you this way. I told you that there
were three things that happened at USG that had been unanticipated at the
beginning of the year: First was how rapidly the price of wallboard fell relative
to the small decline in construction. And that's still a major concern of mine.
Second was the increase in energy prices, especially natural gas. And oil
prices have come back down a little, but natural gas prices haven't retreated
much. So that's still a concern, too.
And the third concern was the asbestos litigation. Warren's
position helps lessen my concern there, but it doesn't really change my concern on
the other two issues. So it's a positive. But the other question marks remain.]