MANY VALUE STOCKS ARE DOWN FOR A GOOD REASON
- BECAUSE THEIR FUNDAMENTALS DETERIORATED.
Nygren: Another distinction between us and other
value managers who've been successful through this period is our sell discipline.
We set our sell target at a price that we believe represents 90% of the present
value of what the acquisition price of the company would be. And when it meets that,
unless there's been a fundamental change that suggests our model is wrong, we sell
the stock.
OID: Why 90% and not 80% or 100%?
Nygren: I would be lying if I said that there was
any great science to that 90% figure. What we're trying to reflect is the
benefit of leaving a little bit on the table so that there's more likely to be
someone who wants to buy the stock from you. If you shoot for 100%, you'll
more frequently have trouble finding someone optimistic enough to buy it from you.
That hasn't been true during the last two years, incidentally,
because there's been so much momentum focus in the market recently. But over a
longer period, we think that 90% has been a better number.
Also, we base our value estimate on what we believe to be
the private market value of the entire company. And in most cases, you have to
acknowledge that the value of a minority share is not as great as that of a control
stake. So those are the reasons why we shoot to sell at 90% of private market
value instead of 100%.
OID: Sounds reasonable.
Nygren: But it's interesting that you asked,
"Why not 80%?" The only direction that I've heard that question asked the
last two years is, "Why don't you wait for 100%?" Frankly, I think there's a
stronger argument that we're asking for too much in the public marketplace
rather than getting out too cheap.
OID: Speaking of your sell discipline, it looks like the Oakmark Fund was doing
a lot of selling during the first quarter
Nygren: That's right. For the year ended
March 31st, I think that we were, on balance, a seller of every name in the
Oakmark Fund portfolio due to significant redemptions, although the
Oakmark Select Fund was essentially flat in terms of shareholder redemptions
during that same period. However, The Oakmark Fund peaked in assets during early
1998 at about $9-1/2 billion
OID: And it's down around $2 billion today. Ouch.
Nygren: It had a difficult second half of 1998,
a difficult 1999 and a difficult first two months of 2000. During that period,
small investment losses during a strong market reduced assets somewhat. But far
and away the majority of the decline in assets in the Oakmark Fund was the result
of shareholder redemptions. And when you get redemptions, you have to sell.
But I believe a lot of the disappointing value stocks
have reflected disappointing fundamentals. Some investors who've had disappointing
results suggest that the market has penalized their holdings basically for no reason
- based on market irrationality. However, the stocks that have been our most
disappointing performers have tended to be those where we misjudged the fundamentals.
Generally, we felt the reaction was too severe in the market.
But to me, it's kind of like fingers on a chalkboard when I hear people complain that
the market has completely irrationally taken their stocks down.