MARKET CAPS CAN BE MISLEADING.
IT'S THE FUNDAMENTALS THAT COUNT.
OID: How would you characterize Oakmark
in terms of investment style and approach?
Nygren: We're basically long-term value
investors. But we take great pains to define value as an acquirer would in that
industry. In effect, we try to identify what a business would be worth in an
acquisition and then buy it at a large discount to that figure.
OID: Basically private market value.
Nygren: That's right. But one of the problems that
investors who focus on private market value - or even those with a more broad
value approach - can have is that they develop one favorite summary statistic.
And then they try to make that work across all industries - whether it's high
yield and low P/E, low price to book or whatever.
We believe that in some industries, one statistic does a
better job of capturing economic value than it might in another industry. For
example, with cable TV stocks, we looked at price per subscriber and enterprise
value to EBITDA. But when we look at an industrial company, we might look at
market cap to sales and enterprise value to EBITA - because depreciation is a
much bigger factor in that business than it is in the cable industry. Therefore,
we allow ourselves the flexibility to select the measure that we believe is the best
depictor of value in each industry.
OID: You're the lead portfolio manager on two funds - the Oakmark Fund and the
Oakmark Select Fund. You discussed the differences at Morningstar
Nygren: Basically, although Oakmark Select
contains large-cap value companies, it's more of a mid-cap offering. Within the
smaller part of the mid-cap area - say between $1-1/2 billion and
$3 billion - I don't expect to make new purchases for the Oakmark Fund,
whereas I do anticipate that I will for Oakmark Select. So in the
Oakmark Fund, we basically emphasize large-cap value.
OID: Morningstar seems to have a different opinion
Nygren: Morningstar just moved the Oakmark Fund
from the large-cap value category to the mid-cap value category. That raises an issue I
don't see discussed much.
Morningstar includes a fund in the large cap category
if it primarily owns the 250 largest market cap companies. Mid-cap is the next 750
as I recall and small-cap is everything below that. And they watch for style
drift by the fund managers. Apparently, they felt that based on our recent portfolios
that there'd been a drift - that the Oakmark Fund used to be a large-cap manager,
but that we'd become a mid-cap manager.
Well, that struck me as odd because I'd been working
on the fund for a long time - first as director of research and now as the
portfolio manager. And I know from what we do internally that nothing's changed at all.
OID: You don't think the change has been so gradual that you just haven't
noticed it.
Nygren: Nope. So I began looking into what was
behind our apparent shift. And it's interesting - one of the reasons why
they even bother with that system is that historically, large-cap companies
have been less volatile. So they felt people should understand the size
breakdown of the companies their funds owned.
But the shortcut has always been market cap rather than
the companies' fundamentals. And it didn't take long for us to figure out
what had happened: We'd cut back on our ownership of formerly small and mid-sized
companies that had achieved large-cap status. Why? Because the market had begun
to value their stocks so highly.
OID: That is interesting.
Nygren: So we went back and asked, "What would happen
if instead of measuring size based on market cap, we used sales or net income or
shareholders' equity? Using that measure, has there been a change in the percentage
of our portfolio in those categories?"
And it turns out that there hasn't been a change. The
Oakmark Fund's always had the majority of its assets in companies that
qualify as large based on their fundamental statistics. So although we're buying
the same large companies by market capitalization that we've always bought, we're
now being categorized as a mid-cap fund.
What's changed is the percentage of large-cap stocks that
don't qualify anymore as large-cap companies based on their sales, earnings, etc. In
fact, we went back and looked over the last decade at the number of large-caps that
weren't big companies based on any of those measures - sales, income or equity. And it
turns out that the number's gone up about five fold.
OID: Fascinating.
Nygren: But unsophisticated investors - even
moderately sophisticated investors - trying to achieve a lower risk profile by
buying large-cap names may find that they have inadvertently stepped into a
very risky portfolio. In many cases, they actually own smaller companies
that have achieved large-cap valuations.
So they wind up with some kind of geometric increase in risk
by combining those two factors - despite the fact that they're implementing an
approach that would traditionally be considered a lower risk approach.
In contrast, the Oakmark Fund
has been, is and will continue to be a large company fund. But if we can buy
large companies at mid-cap valuations, so much the better.