OID: Yeah. Lots of charts looked that way.
Nygren: That's the market all of us have faced these last
couple of years. The more your investment process relied on fundamental business
value and the more you've believed cheapness is a good thing, the worse you've done.
It's almost like the more respect the investor had for what
could go wrong in ideas, the worse their performance has been the last couple years.
Most of us who invest with a value approach tend to be worriers by nature - thinking
about what can go wrong in an idea more than the perfect home run outcome that might
be out there. But that kind of thought process hasn't added anything.
Also, in the old style of investing in mutual funds
that was so frequently done 20 years ago, somebody would do their research,
find a fund company they trusted, put most of their equity money with that fund
and maybe check it every year or two to see how it was doing.
OID: The proverbial good old days.
Nygren: That type of investor barely exists
anymore. Whether you're talking about the individual investor or the investment
adviser, the focus has continued to get shorter and shorter and shorter.
I've been running
Oakmark Select Fund
for four years now. And we were very fortunate to get off to a fast start. The Fund
was up quite a bit its first couple of months and then 50-something percent the next
year. But what amazed me was that there were people actually redeeming. I couldn't
help but wonder, "What were they hoping for?"
OID: Are you suggesting 60% per year is unrealistic?
Nygren: One of the things we do a little differently
from most of the other fund companies is that we make our managers accessible
via e-mail. And it never fails - if we go through a three or four-week bad period,
the e-mails start coming along the lines of, "What's wrong? I bought into this because
I believed in you."
And maybe they didn't read much of what we said - because I
believe that our fund family, more than most, has gone out of its way to say,
"You really shouldn't invest in any fund unless your time horizon is at least
3-5 years, if not longer."
OID: That would apply to anyone investing in equities in general, wouldn't it?
Nygren: Absolutely. But in the mutual fund industry,
that's way out there. In today's world, investors with a 3-5 month time horizon
think they have a long time horizon.
OID: I guess everything's relative.
Nygren: That's right. An acquaintance of mine was
all shaken up by recent declines in the stock market. And I told her, "Relax.
As long as you don't own high profile technology names, stocks are not historically
expensive. Just stand pat and things will be fine."
Well, the next day, I spoke with her. The market was
down 2% that day. And she said, "You lied to me."
OID: You don't think her time horizon is long enough?
Nygren: The word "investor" - at least the definition
that most of us grew up with - doesn't represent many of the people who buy
and own stocks today. We're all faced with that frustrating position that at the
time our universe is the most attractive, it's probably also the time the fewest
number of clients want you to buy those stocks and clients are firing you left and right.
OID: Which has to be one of the greatest indications in the world that you're on
the right track.
Nygren: You bet. As I said at the Morningstar
Conference, we've received more complaints from shareholders about the fact that we own
Toys "R" Us than
anything else we've ever owned. We've heard things like, "If you're so stupid as to buy
Toys 'R' Us, we know that we're in the wrong fund."
But that just makes me more confident about an idea. The
criticism's left me feeling very positive about it.