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from Outstanding Investor Digest's December 31, 1999 edition
LONGLEAF PARTNERS FUNDS'
MASON HAWKINS, C.T. FITZPATRICK & STALEY CATES
(continued from preceding
page)
A disconnect between stock prices and underlying reality.
C.T. Fitzpatrick: As Mason
said, many of you have asked, "What's
going on with publicly traded real estate?" Earnings remain healthy throughout the industry. And
the companies that we own are generally meeting or exceeding our expectations. Private market real
estate values have moved north over the past couple of years. And fundamentals remain healthy
throughout the industry with rents continuing to rise and stable occupancies. And very
interestingly, new supply growth has actually declined from the peak levels reached last fall.
But over the same period of time, publicly traded real estate companies have
languished. Their prices have declined rather dramatically.
Very simply, there's an excess of sellers and no buyers.
Fitzpatrick: So why the disconnect? Well, consider these statistics:
Year to date, real estate mutual funds have experienced more than $500 million of net outflows.
That's an average of almost $13 million per week. In the latest week [for which that data is
available], the outflow was $19 million.
In contrast, the average equity mutual fund has had inflows of $4.3 billion
per week. Basically, two weeks of inflows into the average equity mutual fund is equal to the
assets under management for the entire real estate mutual fund industry.
So what we have is an excess of sellers and no buyers. Prices are moving
south not because of fundamentals, but because of selling pressure that's basically feeding on
itself. So stock prices really aren't influenced right now by fundamentals or by values.
The disconnect isn't fun, but we like the opportunities.
Fitzpatrick: Our response to this environment is to focus on
long-term returns and value creation at the companies we own. And based on these criteria, we're
very pleased with the progress that our companies are making. Instead of being upset by this
environment, although we admit that we are frustrated, we are grateful for the opportunities that we
have - the numerous opportunities we have - in the publicly traded real estate world.
We continue to add to our stake in
Longleaf Realty Fund. And as painful as
it might be for some of you, we would encourage you to do the same.
POSSIBLE CATALYSTS IN OUR REAL ESTATE STOCKS?
THEY'RE ALREADY IN MOTION AND ON THE WAY.
Catalysts to unlock value are already underway.
Shareholder: In
Longleaf Partners Realty Fund, I know that you look
at individual stocks and not so much at the real estate industry as a whole. However, given that
that's somewhat dominating values right now, I wondered if you had any thoughts on a possible
catalyst to break the stretch here where the market just doesn't like REITs?
Fitzpatrick: So what can turn things around? Well, we're seeing the
following: Several companies have announced management-led LBOs [leveraged buyouts]. Also, private
buyers are beginning to enter the market. These firms are paying prices well in excess of our
appraisals - which suggests that the companies we own are even cheaper than we believe them to be.
Page 10 of 12
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