from Outstanding Investor Digest's August 8, 1996 edition
CUNDILL VALUE & CUNDILL SECURITY
FUND'S
PETER CUNDILL & TIM MCELVAINE
(continued from preceding
page)
CHINA WAS HOT, BUT NOW IT'S NOT
--
TWO MICROCOSMS OF MARKET REALITY....
OID: We see what you mean about
Canadian retailers. But might we trouble you for one more
idea?
Cundill: At this year's
annual meeting, I mentioned that several companies in the
People's Republic of China had listed shares and that they'd
gone straight down since.
One of them is
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings [CBA/NYSE]. Its
subsidiary, Shenyang Automotive, makes mini vans using
Toyota assembly and Toyota expertise. And, as recently as
1992, Brilliance was as high as $34.75. Today, it's trading
at $3-7/8.
OID: Ouch.
Cundill: It's true that
its earnings have gone down. However, the net-net -- funnily
enough -- when it was trading at $34 was $1.66. Today, with
the stock at $3-7/8, the net-net's $3.30. It has no long
term debt and still has a lot of cash. And at least for now,
it's still making money -- albeit a lot less.
OID: And Morningstar International
Stocks shows its book value as being $5+ as of December
31st.
Cundill: Yep.
OID: Have you bought this one?
Cundill: We have
-- and just recently.
OID: Why is it down nearly 90%?
Cundill: Net income in
'92 was $18 million -- and now it's down to $4 million. But,
more important, I think, is simply that the PRC was hot and
people loved China then. That was when Barton Biggs wrote
that wonderful piece about how he loved China.
OID: And the fact that capital
expenditures exceeded cash flow the last three years
probably doesn't help.
Cundill: Nope.
OID: Although that may not be all that
unusual for growth companies in capital intensive businesses
-- although this one doesn't sound like it's been growing
for the last few years...
Cundill: We don't know
if it will be a growth company or not. But it meets our
tests.
OID: What else can you tell us about
Brilliance?
Cundill: Not a lot. If
you'd like to get more details, you can get all you want
from David Briggs in Vancouver.
OID: Regrettably, pages do not
allow...
Cundill: And while
we're on the subject of the PRC, you may recall that I also
mentioned Douglas Eu at this year's annual meeting as being
a valuable member of our intelligence network. Well, we also
own shares of his closed-end fund -- Jardine Fleming China
Region Ltd. [JFC.AX/Aus]. As its name implies, it invests in
Asia -- mostly in the PRC and Hong Kong -- and trades in
Australia. And it's currently selling at a 32% discount to
net asset value.
OID: And may we ask your cost?
Cundill: I don't
remember exactly what we've paid. But our cost is probably
roughly where it's trading today. We don't own a lot of it
-- because it's not a big fund.
But it just seems to me
we're buying a portfolio that's partially in the PRC that's
probably cheap to begin with. And, then, we're buying it at
a 32% discount.
OID: Because of concerns about
1997.
Cundill: I don't know
why. It just is. Interestingly, Eu runs another fund that's
very similar that trades on the New York Stock Exchange with
basically the same holdings. And, yet, that one often trades
at a premium.
OID: Which, I imagine, speaks
volumes.
Cundill: I think so.
But what do I know?
OID: Quite a bit if past features are
any indication.
Thanks for sharing your
thoughts with us again this year.
Cundill: My
pleasure.
--OID
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For additional
information
you may contact:
Peter Cundill &
Associates, Ltd.
1200 Sun Life Plaza
1100 Melville Street
Vancouver, B.C. V6E 4A6
Canada
(800) 663-0156 (Canada Only)
(604) 685-4231
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The preceding feature appeared in the August 8, 1996 edition of
Outstanding Investor Digest.
Disclaimer
Page 27 of 27
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