from Outstanding Investor Digest's August 8, 1996 edition
CUNDILL VALUE & CUNDILL SECURITY
FUND'S
PETER CUNDILL & TIM MCELVAINE
(continued from preceding
page)
IN 1996, EVERYTHING THAT COULD
GO WRONG DID.
WE DON'T THINK THAT'S VERY LIKELY TO RECUR.
OID: You mentioned that Canadian
retailers were particularly hard hit among those in North
America and that women's apparel retailers were especially
hard hit.
McElvaine: That's
right. And these were mall-based, women's wear retailers to
boot -- which happened to be particularly out of
favor.
OID: And to a large degree, I gather
still are.
McElvaine: Neither one
has moved up since the Fall. So you're right. And both
expect business to be significantly better this year than
last.
OID: Although Robert Noel tells us
that you have to be an optimist to be either a retailer or
an entrepreneur, although we think stupidity is the more
common trait -- at least among investment publishers...
McElvaine: To start a
retailer from scratch today, you would indeed have to be an
optimist. But to buy an existing, profitable retailer at a
price well below the cost of recreating it is quite another
story indeed.
OID: But what's to keep 1996 from
being the first of many tough years -- for the industry in
general and Chateau and Reitman's in particular?
McElvaine: Well,
anything's possible. But last year saw the convergence of a
number of negative factors: First, retailers entered the
Fall with above average inventories because of a very weak
back-to-school season. Second, a number of competitors'
balance sheets were strained already. Third, the consumer
was unusually selective in their buying. And, fourth, there
was a very nasty price war last year between Wal-Mart and
Zellers -- which created still more price competition,
besides pulling traffic away. So they were kind of hit from
all sides at once.
OID: And you think those negatives are
nonrecurring -- at least simultaneously?
McElvaine: That's
right. For example, inventories were better going into this
year. And one result has been better pricing. Plus, it's
hard to imagine a repeat of the pricing problems that
happened in the Fall of last year.
Also, again, both
Chateau Stores and Reitman's are optimistic that this year's
earnings will be better than last year's. However, even if
they're not, in both cases, we're confident that they'll be
around for the recovery -- whenever it may come. So if the
industry takes 3-4 years to turn around, that's fine with us
-- because both of these companies are cash flow positive
even in this environment.
OID: And, in effect, you're purchasing
the survivors while there's still blood on the
streets...
McElvaine: Exactly.
We're getting the retail businesses for very little. And,
these two have been very good businesses economically. Of
course, I'm not talking about whether they add fashion to
the world...
OID: That's a different publication,
actually...
McElvaine: The nature
of the retail business, however -- as I've described --
forces you to be careful because it doesn't have an enduring
quality.
OID: Aside from its negatives, in any
case.
McElvaine: So there's a
price at which you want to own these businesses and a price
at which you don't. And as long as you don't mislead
yourself into thinking that you have something you can hold
onto forever, you're fine. You have to be as price sensitive
as a shareholder as you might be as a shopper. How's that
for a snappy phrase?
OID: Don't give up your day job.
 But maybe you have a
manager who'll do intelligent things in terms of capital
allocation and reward you for holding it a long, long
time.
McElvaine: I don't
disagree with that on Reitman's. But investors have
sometimes valued that highly and sometimes they
haven't.
OID: And right now, they aren't.
McElvaine: That's
right.
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