from Outstanding Investor Digest's August 8, 1996 edition
CUNDILL VALUE & CUNDILL SECURITY
FUND'S
PETER CUNDILL & TIM MCELVAINE
(continued from preceding
page)
EXCLUDING MISADVENTURE AND
TRAGEDY,
CHATEAU'S MANAGED A MID-TEENS ROE.
OID: Why so cheap? Is it a dog?
McElvaine: Quite the
contrary. Here are Chateau's sales, earnings and returns
since 1991:
CHATEAU STORES
(C$millions unless otherwise noted)
|
Fiscal
|
|
Earnings
|
Earnings
|
Book
|
Return
|
|
Year1
|
Revenues
|
Pretax
|
After tax
|
Value2
|
on Equity3
|
|
1991
|
147.5
|
7.8
|
4.0
|
21.3
|
18.8%
|
|
1992
|
150.8
|
(6.5)
|
(5.5)
|
25.3
|
(21.7)
|
|
1993
|
156.9
|
8.6
|
4.5
|
20.1
|
22.4
|
|
1994
|
150.3
|
11.8
|
7.0
|
24.9
|
28.1
|
|
1995
|
159.8
|
7.8
|
4.6
|
31.8
|
14.5
|
|
1996
|
142.0
|
3.0
|
1.5
|
35.8
|
4.2
|
|
Avg.
|
|
|
|
|
11.0%
|
|
Avg. excluding
1992
|
|
|
17.6%
|
1Fiscal year ending January
31st.
2Beginning of year book value.
3Return on beginning of year book value.
OID: So, in effect, it was the lousy
1996 results and the overall pessimism about retailers in
general that made their stock crater?
McElvaine: That's the
way it looks to us. As you see, last year was a difficult
one for Chateau. As I mentioned, it was difficult for
retailers generally in North America -- particularly in
women's apparel. And Canadian retailers suffered even more
than those in the U.S. However, even though Chateau had a
terrible year, notice that they still managed to make
money.
OID: Unlike 1992 where they lost over
20% on equity.
McElvaine: That's
right. But that was only because they went into the U.S. and
lost a ton of money. And they took the write-downs related
to that misadventure in 1992. However, those are definitely
discontinued operations.
Actually, the fact that
they wrote their assets down and renewed their focus on
Canada is, if anything, a virtue in our book. In any event,
it wasn't their core business.
OID: But I understand that they
reported losses in 1987, 1988 and 1989. What happened
there?
McElvaine: The same
thing. They took a write-down in 1992, but their U.S. stores
were perennial money losers before that, too.
OID: So do you think there's such a
thing as normalized return on equity here?
McElvaine: Return on
equity in retailers is particularly hard to peg for lots of
reasons.
OID: We noticed.
McElvaine: One reason
is that cash is a little like a spring because it goes up
and down depending on your inventory position throughout the
year. So it's difficult to really know what your net
invested assets are.
But aside from the
years of their misadventures in the U.S. and last year,
they've historically earned an ROE in the teens. And they've
even earned that return while they were carrying around much
more capital than they needed. So we don't think they're
dogs by any means.
OID: Even if they do seem to have a
recent history, at least, of nonrecurring problems that
recur...
McElvaine: That may be.
But, again, net of cash, we're only paying about C$3.50 per
share -- or about C$16 million -- for a business that could
earn as much as C$7 million. And that's fine with us. In
that case, we don't mind if it's cyclical. We'll just wait
it out -- or at least we will if we think that the company
has staying power.
And because their book
value is up around $7.80, if they earn a 15% return on
equity, then Chateau would have earnings north of $1.
OID: Actually more like $1.17, but
who's counting...
McElvaine: And they'll
pay dividends of 30¢ this year. So we're picking up a
6% dividend while we wait.
Page 19 of 27
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