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from Outstanding Investor Digest's August 8, 1996 edition



CUNDILL VALUE & CUNDILL SECURITY FUND'S
PETER CUNDILL & TIM MCELVAINE
(continued from preceding page)

 


EXCLUDING MISADVENTURE AND TRAGEDY,
CHATEAU'S MANAGED A MID-TEENS ROE.

OID: Why so cheap? Is it a dog?
   McElvaine:
Quite the contrary. Here are Chateau's sales, earnings and returns since 1991:


CHATEAU STORES
(C$millions unless otherwise noted)

Fiscal

Earnings

Earnings

Book

Return

Year1

Revenues

Pretax

After tax

Value2

on Equity3

1991

147.5

7.8

4.0

21.3

18.8%

1992

150.8

(6.5)

(5.5)

25.3

(21.7)

1993

156.9

8.6

4.5

20.1

22.4

1994

150.3

11.8

7.0

24.9

28.1

1995

159.8

7.8

4.6

31.8

14.5

1996

142.0

3.0

1.5

35.8

4.2

Avg.

11.0%

Avg. excluding 1992

17.6%

1Fiscal year ending January 31st.
2Beginning of year book value.
3Return on beginning of year book value.


OID: So, in effect, it was the lousy 1996 results and the overall pessimism about retailers in general that made their stock crater?
   McElvaine:
That's the way it looks to us. As you see, last year was a difficult one for Chateau. As I mentioned, it was difficult for retailers generally in North America -- particularly in women's apparel. And Canadian retailers suffered even more than those in the U.S. However, even though Chateau had a terrible year, notice that they still managed to make money.

OID: Unlike 1992 where they lost over 20% on equity.
   McElvaine:
That's right. But that was only because they went into the U.S. and lost a ton of money. And they took the write-downs related to that misadventure in 1992. However, those are definitely discontinued operations.
   Actually, the fact that they wrote their assets down and renewed their focus on Canada is, if anything, a virtue in our book. In any event, it wasn't their core business.

OID: But I understand that they reported losses in 1987, 1988 and 1989. What happened there?
   McElvaine:
The same thing. They took a write-down in 1992, but their U.S. stores were perennial money losers before that, too.

OID: So do you think there's such a thing as normalized return on equity here?
   McElvaine:
Return on equity in retailers is particularly hard to peg for lots of reasons.

OID: We noticed.
   McElvaine:
One reason is that cash is a little like a spring because it goes up and down depending on your inventory position throughout the year. So it's difficult to really know what your net invested assets are.
   But aside from the years of their misadventures in the U.S. and last year, they've historically earned an ROE in the teens. And they've even earned that return while they were carrying around much more capital than they needed. So we don't think they're dogs by any means.

OID: Even if they do seem to have a recent history, at least, of nonrecurring problems that recur...
   McElvaine:
That may be. But, again, net of cash, we're only paying about C$3.50 per share -- or about C$16 million -- for a business that could earn as much as C$7 million. And that's fine with us. In that case, we don't mind if it's cyclical. We'll just wait it out -- or at least we will if we think that the company has staying power.
   And because their book value is up around $7.80, if they earn a 15% return on equity, then Chateau would have earnings north of $1.

OID: Actually more like $1.17, but who's counting...
   McElvaine:
And they'll pay dividends of 30¢ this year. So we're picking up a 6% dividend while we wait.



Page 19 of 27

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