from Outstanding Investor Digest's August 8, 1996 edition
CUNDILL VALUE & CUNDILL SECURITY
FUND'S
PETER CUNDILL & TIM MCELVAINE
(continued from preceding
page)
THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS
NORMAL,
BUT THE MATH IS ON OUR SIDE.
OID: Can you tell us anything about
earnings or returns historically?
McElvaine: Like
Paribas, this is a company in transition. They're taking a
cash asset and redeploying it into an operating business. So
you have to be careful with drawing too many conclusions
from their past results. However, historically, they've
earned as much as FF44 as recently as 1992.
OID: They've earned that much?!
McElvaine: They did.
But that was a different time. We don't think of that as
necessarily being representative.
OID: Could you even ballpark
normalized earnings -- if there is such a thing
here?
McElvaine: There's not,
really -- because they now have cash and industrial assets.
So what will they be able to earn going forward? Well, the
stock's at FF130 and the cash is earning 5% today. So they
may have earning power of around FF15 today. But once their
cash is redeployed, we just think that they'll be able to do
a lot better, although how much better we can't really
say.
OID: It's awfully tough for us to do
background work or fact checking on these companies. We
don't have remotely the data available for these that we do
for domestic firms -- even for most very small
ones.
McElvaine: Actually,
the Street's in the dark, too. But again, in the case of
Nord Est, the current price of the stock is more than
covered by the current assets. You get the industrial
operation for free. They have a shareholder who doesn't want
to be there. They're focusing their energies and other
assets on their core business. And no one knows anything
about it or really cares.
Frankly, what else do
you need to know. We've found that to be a combination that
tends to lead to good things.
OID: It's certainly hard to argue with
you there. McElvaine: Our downside
is protected by the cash -- although, of course, it can be
subject to piracy or stupidity. And the discount to NAV is
substantial. So our upside will come as they evolve into a
focused operating business.
In effect, the
arithmetic is on your side.
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